Trapped Below $9K, Bitcoin Risks Downside Break
The graph above indicates that bitcoin has a hard time holding on to gains above $8,943 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement), and you will find mixed indications for what might happen next.
- The descending 5-week moving average resistance is observed at $9,210.
- The 200-day moving average is observed at $9,284
- Dual leading neckline resistance (former support) stands at $9,280 (Feb. 25 reduced).
- The descending 10-week moving average is lined up at $9,411.
- 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the current fall is9,470.
Meanwhile, the CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), which reflects the average of BTC costs around the world’s leading trades, is observed at $8,306 – little changed from the prior day’s closing (according to UTC) of $8,380.
Bitcoin and graph image via Shutterstock
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways in a narrow range during the previous week, however, a fall $8,000 may be on the road, the technical studies indicate.
On the weekly chart, the bears stay in control – as suggested by the bearish outside-week and negative follow-through, along with the descending 5-week MA and 10-week MA. Furthermore, last week’s candle comes with a very long upper shadow, suggesting a stronger possibility for prices to fall.
The relative strength indicator (RSI) has violated the descending triangle to the disadvantage, signaling the BTC will likely find a downside rest of the trading range.
On the flip side, the 50-MA has bottomed out and appears set to reduce the 100-MA from below (bullish crossover). The crossover will likely happen in the next few hours when BTC moves above $8,700, so perhaps opening the doors for a upside rest of the trading range.
The cryptocurrency peeped above the9,000 mark on March 20, based on Bitfinex statistics, but resistance $9,200 has proved a difficult nut to crack. Meanwhile, the bearish chart signals suggest a fall in costs is likely, although the 4-hour 50-MA has likely capped the disadvantage approximately $8,200.
Weekly graph
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4-hour graph
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- BTC seems most likely to take out support at $8,200 and re-test $7,240 (current low) this past week.
- The weekly graph favors a fall to $6,600 (per week 50-MA).
- Intraday bullish situation: A move above $8,550 (4-hour 50-MA) might yield a re-test of $9,177 (March 21 large) and $9,200.
- Only a clear break above $9,470 would signal a bullish fracture and open doors for $10,200.
Meanwhile, on the downside, approval below $8,200 can embolden the bears and could return a sell-off to $7,240 (March 18 reduced).
On the higher side, just a daily close (according to UTC) above $9,470 would allow a more powerful rally for $10,200.
A bullish fracture may not necessarily yield a sharp dip for $10,200 (goal as per the measured elevation method), though, because bitcoin Will Probably face stiff resistance in the Selection of $9,280 to $9,470: